Box Office 8/20

[Oren1]

I'm most interested in seeing a line for Open Water. This is the poor-man's version of Blair Witch, and should do pretty well in 2200 theaters. 17.5 million

The other two openings I don't have a strong opinion on, although I don't think either the Exorcist or Without a Paddle will do that great... The Exorcist looks close to a straight-to-video movie, and although the trailer for Without a Paddle is being well-received, I doubt a lot of people are willing to shell out 10 bucks for a Seth Green comedy.
That said, I have no idea how much either will make. The Exorcist 3 actually managed 9 million in 1288 theaters back in 1990, which is surprising. This one could match that number, I guess. Without a Paddle has the potential to do better than other recent teen comedies, maybe 8 or 9 million?

 

[Oren1]

22-22 +13.975

Open Water +3 against Exorcist 3.6 units to win 3

Without a Paddle 6.5 to 9 million +115 1 unit

 

[Gillian]

Yeah, the only problem with that is those exocist movies always seem to do really well.

Hmmm. I don't know about betting against the exorcist.

 

[Oren1]

+3 million though, which is a lot, even if the Exorcist makes more I don't think it will be by much. They can trick some people into coming to see a piece of shit movie, just because it's called the exorcist, but, it wasn't shown to critics and that always means the movie is crap, on top of that the preview doesn't look that great, it's o.k. at masking how crappy the movie really is, but I don't think a lot of people will be fooled. It is #4 at Yahoo though for some reason. I may have overpredicted Open Water a bit but if the Exorcist beats it I don't think it will be by more than 3 million.

 

[Gillian]

I think the BOX OFFICE REPORT guy has sharp picks this week.

Exorcist: The Beggining 17 million

Open Water: 15 million.

That's only a two million difference. You're safe.

I'm a big fan of the original Exorcist... so I might check it out. Have to watch out for the die hard fans... (like Rocky fans) the always come out for the sequals. That said... I think Open water makes 16.8 million... and Exorcist 16 -17 million.

Open water... no problems.

 

[Oren1]

I'm adding another unit at +115

 

[Gillian]

Intertops has ExoRcist up now!!!

 

[Oren1]

Exorcist 10 million or less +225 1/2 a unit.

 

[Oren1]

well Open Water didn't hold up it's lead on Moviefone unfortunately. But I like this prop at Olympic:

Excorcist under 16 1/2 million 2.3 to win 2

 

[Gillian]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Oren1:
Exorcist 10 million or less +225 1/2 a unit. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

 

[Oren1]

woot it's number 1 again

 

[Gillian]

i think i'm going to be kicking myself that i didn't make a huge (2 dime) play on Open Water to beat Exorcist. It closed with +145. That would have been some nice payback.

what stopped me??? All exorcists seem to do pretty good. Hope this one bombs for you get paid, Oren.

 

[Oren1]

It seems like more often than not when I make a large bet I get burned.

heh, have been somewhat conservative except on the bets I thought were locks. The Exorcist does have a bit of buzz, it's probably going to do o.k. this weekend. The reviews are out, however, they're very bad, and I'm guessing that it won't overcome them as easily as AVP did.

 

[joethor]

i agree with you on open water, a lot of interest in that film and a similar theatre count.

 

[Oren1]

damnit exorcist is #1 again. I think I might have underestimated Exorcist. They did a decent job of marketing a turd, people might actually go out and see this p.o.s.

 

[Oren1]

"First show theatre report...
-- jhamaker (aka "jhamaker11"), Aug 20, 17:15
EXOR4 had a mildly ok first show. Definately nothing to get excited about. Interesting thing is this is one of those movies that people think will be packed just because they want to see it.

OPENW had just a couple people more than EXOR4.

WOPAD made a big plop for the first show with about half of EXOR4's total.

PDIA2 had a very strong first show (about 50% of last Friday's first show). At this point it looks like it should hold up well this weekend.

AVSP has been steadily dropping all week and the first show today was just 1/3 of last Friday's first show. Definately looks to have a huge second weekend drop.

COLAT seems to be holding up well. First show today was down just 1/3 from last Friday's first show.

We aren't playing BENJI or GRDST.

Overall this weekend is off to a slow start and I would project AVSP, PDIA2, or COLAT to take the weekend and I don't see any moving breaking 15M*.

*In general my theatre doesn't do great business with R rated movies that skew to younger audiances because of our tough enforcement of the rating and the lax enforcement at a theatre 20 min. down the road. Take that into consideration when thinking about what I have to say on EXOR4 and OPENW.

"


I'm starting to wonder if I should have taken under 6.5 for Without a Paddle. Too late now

 

[Oren1]

Open Water is getting beat by Exorcist 307 reviews to 175 today on Yahoo reviews.

 

[Gillian]

Look for the Exoricst to have a front loaded Friday. The reviews are bad. The movie is bad. They played the Original on TV on Wed. That doesn't help.

Without a Paddle and need to do Badly.

Exorcist I need to do UNDER 14 million. (i don't think so)

didn't touch OPen water.


KEEP THE THEATER REPORTS COMING, BIG GUY!!!

 

[Oren1]

I think I'm getting the shaft this weekend.

"As of 4pm PST

EXORCIST: Doing 4x the business of YUGIOH matinee
(2 screens)
PADDLE: doing 2x the business of YUGIOH, 2 screens
OPEN WATER doing slightly less than PADDLE on 2 screens
BENJI: YUGIOH is doing 4x the business TODAY, no joke
NICOTINA: YUGIOH is doing 10x the business

Yugioh did about $1040. One screen, three shows."

 

[Oren1]

Movie: Without A Paddle
Location: Regal fireweed 7 theater
Time / Seater / Croud: 11:40am - 250 - 20%25% full first showing
Trailers:
Serviving Christmas - looks good
Sky Captain World of Tomorrow - looks great
and some other movies

Review: the movie was good I like the opening scene, it has an ending well fit for this tipe of film and its the tipe of film that will give you everything you are anticipating and nothing more. The acting was good I had nothing to compaln about and overall its just one solid film. Theres is nothing special about this film but you will laugh at the scenes that are intended to make you laugh and you will leave the theater with a smile and be very satisfied. I recomend that you watch this film if your looking for a funny friendship tipe film.

Croud: didnt respond to any of the trailers, they laughed at the scenes in the movei that were suposed to make you laugh and they left the movie with satisfied exprestions on there faces some were smiling. The croud was not big enough to be able to tell what a large scale audience would think of the film.

Grade: a solid B